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Infrastructure budgets with rising capex have historically produced 2-3 week rallies in capital goods, defence, and railways. L&T, HAL, RVNL have been the most consistent Budget Day outperformers when capex rises, while FMCG has typically underperformed on Budget Day in high-capex budgets.
Nifty 1 Day
+1.5%
Nifty 3 Days
+1.8%
Nifty 1 Week
+2.1%
Nifty 1 Month
+3.2%
FM Sitharaman increased capital expenditure by 33% to ₹10 lakh crore — highest ever. Defence, railway and green energy got highest allocations. Nifty rose 1.5% on Budget Day. Infrastructure and defence stocks rose 10-20% in 1 month.
Defensive rotation out — consumption focus reduced
FM Sitharaman increased capital expenditure by 33% to ₹10 lakh crore — highest ever. Defence, railway and green energy got highest allocations. Nifty rose 1.5% on Budget Day. Infrastructure and defence stocks rose 10-20% in 1 month.
Historically, HAL, BEL, RVNL were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.
The Nifty 50 moved +2.1% in the following week and +3.2% over the following month.
Infrastructure budgets with rising capex have historically produced 2-3 week rallies in capital goods, defence, and railways. L&T, HAL, RVNL have been the most consistent Budget Day outperformers when capex rises, while FMCG has typically underperformed on Budget Day in high-capex budgets.
Regime
recovery
Repo Rate
6.25%
India VIX
14.5
Data Confidence
93%