What happened during IL&FS Default — NBFC Liquidity Crisis?

IL&FS — a ₹91,000 Cr infrastructure finance giant — defaulted on commercial paper in September 2018. This triggered a sector-wide liquidity freeze for NBFCs. DHFL, Yes Bank and Reliance Capital were badly impacted. Nifty fell 10% over the month.

Which stocks benefited most from IL&FS Default — NBFC Liquidity Crisis?

Historically, HDFC Bank, Infosys were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.

How did the Nifty 50 react to IL&FS Default — NBFC Liquidity Crisis?

The Nifty 50 moved -5.0% in the following week and -10.0% over the following month.

How reliable is this historical pattern?

This pattern has occurred 4 times in our verified database, with the Nifty 50 moving higher in 25% of those occurrences. Our Historical Confidence score for it is 63/100, based on sample size, consistency, and data quality.

Which sectors are most consistently affected?

Across all 4 occurrences, Private Banks, IT, Banking showed the strongest and most consistent reactions — led by Private Banks at +1.0% on average.

What's the ideal holding period based on history?

Historically, the strongest and most consistent move has come over a 1 day window, averaging -1.0% with a 25% positive rate.

Does this pattern always play out the same way?

No — history shows a tendency, not a certainty. The Nifty 50 moved down in 75% of the 4 recorded occurrences, meaning it moved the other way the rest of the time.

Corporate Crisisbearish Sep 21, 2018

IL&FS Default — NBFC Liquidity Crisis

Based on 4 verified historical occurrences of this pattern between Sep 2018 and Jan 2023.

First Occurrence Sep 2018

Latest Occurrence Jan 2023

Occurrences 4

Data Confidence 92%

35Pattern Match

Historical Similarity (30%)55

Success Rate (20%)25

Market Impact (15%)0

Company Consistency (15%)50

Sector Consistency (10%)20

Data Confidence (10%)45

CautiousHistorical Verdict🔴 Weak Pattern

2.0/5 · Poor

Based on 4 historical Corporate Crisis events

Opportunity score 50/100 · 92% confidence · High risk · down trend

Historically, Private Banks reacted positively 100% of the time (avg. +1.0%) around events like this.

View Timeline Similar Events Compare With Today

Historical Occurrences

since Sep 2018

Avg. Nifty Reaction (1M)

-7.8%

across all occurrences

Historically Positive

25%

1 of 4 times

Avg. Data Confidence

88.75%

across occurrences

Occurrence Timeline

Sep 21, 2018IL&FS Default — NBFC Liquidity Crisis

-10.0%This Event

Mar 05, 2020Yes Bank RBI Moratorium — Depositor Freeze

-25.0%

Apr 04, 2022HDFC Ltd + HDFC Bank Mega Merger Announced

-1.5%

Jan 24, 2023Hindenburg Research Report on Adani Group

+5.1%

Historical Winners

HDFC Bank+6.2%

Appeared in 3 similar eventsConsistency

GMR Airports+8.0%

Appeared in 1 similar eventConsistency

Reliance Ind+4.5%

Appeared in 1 similar eventConsistency

Infosys+5.0%

Appeared in 1 similar eventConsistency

SBI+8.0%

Appeared in 1 similar eventConsistency

View History

Historical Losers

DHFL-47.5%

Appeared in 2 similar eventsConsistency

Yes Bank-57.5%

Appeared in 2 similar eventsConsistency

Adani Ent-55.0%

Appeared in 1 similar eventConsistency

Adani Green-65.0%

Appeared in 1 similar eventConsistency

Adani Ports-30.0%

Appeared in 1 similar eventConsistency

View History

Sector Performance

Average reaction across 4 occurrences

Private Banks

+1.0%100% of 1x

-2.0%0% of 1x

Banking

-2.7%33% of 3x

PSU Banks

-3.0%0% of 1x

Infrastructure

-4.0%0% of 1x

Housing Finance

-6.5%50% of 2x

Real Estate

-12.0%0% of 1x

NBFC

-14.0%0% of 2x

Adani Group

-55.0%0% of 1x

Pattern Recognition

Private Banks leads most reliably

Reacted positively in 100% of 1 occurrences, averaging +1.0%.

HDFC Bank is the most consistent winner

Gained an average of +6.2% and won in 100% of its 3 appearances.

Nifty moved down most of the time

75% of 4 occurrences (3 of them).

Historical Market Statistics

Market Direction

25%Bullish

Bullish (1)Bearish (3)

Company Outcomes

18tracked

Winners (9)Losers (9)

Sector Leadership

Privattop sector

Private BanksBanking

What Changed Every Time

Real consistency across every occurrence — not a guarantee

Nifty moved down

75% (3/4)

Interest rates were rising

75% (3/4)

Crude oil trend was rising

50% (2/4)

Market regime was bear

50% (2/4)

Private Banks reacted positively

100% (1/1)

Investment Playbook

Derived from real historical data — a research framework, not a recommendation

Historical VerdictCautious

Historical Win Rate25%

Ideal Holding Period~1 Day (-1.0% avg.)

Risk LevelHigh

Pattern Match Score35%

Historical Score27/100 (2.0★)

Action Checklist

Watch Private Banks, IT, Banking for continued strength

Be cautious on Adani Group, NBFC, Real Estate, Housing Finance, Infrastructure

Historical moves typically play out over 1 day

Cross-check with current market regime before acting — history is context, not certainty

Similar Historical Patterns

Other Corporate Crisis events in our database

Mar 05, 2020

Yes Bank RBI Moratorium — Depositor Freeze

-25.0% · 1M

Apr 04, 2022

HDFC Ltd + HDFC Bank Mega Merger Announced

-1.5% · 1M

Jan 24, 2023

Hindenburg Research Report on Adani Group

+5.1% · 1M

Companies Involved

DHFL YESBANK INDIABULLS MRFL

Frequently Asked

← All Historical PatternsMarketRipple Historical Memory Engine

Key Takeaway

NBFC liquidity crises create 20-55% drawdowns in the NBFC sector. Banking also falls 5-8% but quality banks (HDFC, Kotak) recover faster. Crisis spreads through 3-4 entities before stabilising. RBI intervention (CRR cut, OMO) signals the bottom.

★ Recommended

See Historical Winners & Losers

Because knowing which companies actually gained or lost last time is the whole point of a historical pattern — not just that the market moved.

Explore Further

Research DHFL

Because DHFL was directly involved in this historical pattern — its current setup is worth comparing.

Research YESBANK

Because YESBANK was directly involved in this historical pattern — its current setup is worth comparing.

Research INDIABULLS

Because INDIABULLS was directly involved in this historical pattern — its current setup is worth comparing.

Continue Research

Trace a similar event's ripple effects

Because a historical pattern is only useful if you connect it to what's happening right now.

Ask AI: does this pattern apply today?

Because market conditions change — an AI read on today's setup vs. this historical one adds context a static page can't.

Intelligence Path

Corporate Crisis→Historical Validation→Investment Decision

Watchlist

IL&FS Default — NBFC Liquidity Crisis

Occurrence Timeline

Historical Winners

Historical Losers

Sector Performance

Pattern Recognition

Historical Market Statistics

What Changed Every Time

Investment Playbook

Similar Historical Patterns

Companies Involved

Frequently Asked