LIVE
Global financial crises have historically caused 40-60% drawdowns in Indian markets. Leveraged sectors (Real Estate, Infra, NBFCs) have underperformed most, while Pharma and FMCG have been the most defensive. Recovery after a financial crisis is typically 18-24 months but gains are 100%+ from the bottom.
Nifty 1 Day
-3.9%
Nifty 3 Days
-8.0%
Nifty 1 Week
-12.0%
Nifty 1 Month
-28.0%
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on Sep 15, 2008 — the largest bankruptcy in US history. Nifty fell from 5,500 to 2,500 (a 55% drawdown) by March 2009. FIIs pulled out $13B from Indian markets in 2008.
Defensive — domestic pharma revenues stable
Export earnings hedged; domestic demand stable
Real estate + leverage — double whammy
Credit markets froze; developer funding dried up
Exposure to global financial instruments
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on Sep 15, 2008 — the largest bankruptcy in US history. Nifty fell from 5,500 to 2,500 (a 55% drawdown) by March 2009. FIIs pulled out $13B from Indian markets in 2008.
Historically, Sun Pharma, Cipla were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.
The Nifty 50 moved -12.0% in the following week and -28.0% over the following month.
Global financial crises have historically caused 40-60% drawdowns in Indian markets. Leveraged sectors (Real Estate, Infra, NBFCs) have underperformed most, while Pharma and FMCG have been the most defensive. Recovery after a financial crisis is typically 18-24 months but gains are 100%+ from the bottom.
Regime
bear
Repo Rate
9%
India VIX
65.0
Data Confidence
95%