LIVE
Fed taper/rate hike signals have historically caused massive FII outflows from India, with Nifty falling 8-12% in a month. IT stocks with high USD exposure have been the biggest beneficiaries (rupee weakness adds to USD revenues), while Banking and Real Estate have fallen most — IT has tended to hold up best during Fed hawkishness.
Nifty 1 Day
-2.1%
Nifty 3 Days
-3.5%
Nifty 1 Week
-8.0%
Nifty 1 Month
-12.0%
Fed Chairman Bernanke hinted at tapering QE on May 22, 2013. USD/INR surged to 68 in 2 months. FIIs pulled $5B from Indian equities. Nifty fell 12% in 1 month. RBI was forced to raise rates to defend the rupee.
FII selling in rate-sensitive real estate
High FII ownership — large outflows
Rising rates hurt housing finance
Fed Chairman Bernanke hinted at tapering QE on May 22, 2013. USD/INR surged to 68 in 2 months. FIIs pulled $5B from Indian equities. Nifty fell 12% in 1 month. RBI was forced to raise rates to defend the rupee.
Historically, Infosys, Wipro, TCS were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.
The Nifty 50 moved -8.0% in the following week and -12.0% over the following month.
Fed taper/rate hike signals have historically caused massive FII outflows from India, with Nifty falling 8-12% in a month. IT stocks with high USD exposure have been the biggest beneficiaries (rupee weakness adds to USD revenues), while Banking and Real Estate have fallen most — IT has tended to hold up best during Fed hawkishness.
Regime
bull
Repo Rate
7.25%
India VIX
22.5
Data Confidence
88%