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India-Pakistan geopolitical shocks have historically caused a 1-2% Nifty dip with recovery in 3-4 weeks. Defence stocks have rallied 5-10%, while Tourism and Aviation have underperformed during standoffs. Historical precedent: markets recovered in under a month in all India-Pakistan incidents since 1999.
Nifty 1 Day
-0.8%
Nifty 3 Days
-1.0%
Nifty 1 Week
-1.2%
Nifty 1 Month
+3.5%
Pulwama attack on Feb 14, 2019 killed 40 CRPF jawans. India responded with Balakot airstrikes on Feb 26. Markets fell 1% immediately but recovered within 3 weeks — historically India-Pakistan tensions have <1 month market impact.
Pulwama attack on Feb 14, 2019 killed 40 CRPF jawans. India responded with Balakot airstrikes on Feb 26. Markets fell 1% immediately but recovered within 3 weeks — historically India-Pakistan tensions have <1 month market impact.
Historically, HAL, BEL were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.
The Nifty 50 moved -1.2% in the following week and +3.5% over the following month.
India-Pakistan geopolitical shocks have historically caused a 1-2% Nifty dip with recovery in 3-4 weeks. Defence stocks have rallied 5-10%, while Tourism and Aviation have underperformed during standoffs. Historical precedent: markets recovered in under a month in all India-Pakistan incidents since 1999.
Regime
recovery
Repo Rate
6.25%
India VIX
16.0
Data Confidence
85%