What happened during Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff?

Pulwama attack on Feb 14, 2019 killed 40 CRPF jawans. India responded with Balakot airstrikes on Feb 26. Markets fell 1% immediately but recovered within 3 weeks — historically India-Pakistan tensions have <1 month market impact.

Which stocks benefited most from Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff?

Historically, HAL, BEL were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.

How did the Nifty 50 react to Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff?

The Nifty 50 moved -1.2% in the following week and +3.5% over the following month.

What's the investing lesson from Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff?

India-Pakistan geopolitical shocks have historically caused a 1-2% Nifty dip with recovery in 3-4 weeks. Defence stocks have rallied 5-10%, while Tourism and Aviation have underperformed during standoffs. Historical precedent: markets recovered in under a month in all India-Pakistan incidents since 1999.

How reliable is this historical pattern?

This pattern has occurred 2 times in our verified database, with the Nifty 50 moving higher in 50% of those occurrences. Our Historical Confidence score for it is 58/100, based on sample size, consistency, and data quality.

Which sectors are most consistently affected?

Across all 2 occurrences, Fertilizers, Oil & Gas, Defence showed the strongest and most consistent reactions — led by Fertilizers at +12.0% on average.

What's the ideal holding period based on history?

Historically, the strongest and most consistent move has come over a 1 month window, averaging +0.1% with a 50% positive rate.

Does this pattern always play out the same way?

No — history shows a tendency, not a certainty. The Nifty 50 moved up in 50% of the 2 recorded occurrences, meaning it moved the other way the rest of the time.

Geopoliticalmixed Feb 14, 2019

Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff

Q: Which stocks benefited most from Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff?

Historically, HAL, BEL were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.

Q: How did the Nifty 50 react to Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff?

The Nifty 50 moved -1.2% in the following week and +3.5% over the following month.

Q: What's the investing lesson from Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff?

India-Pakistan geopolitical shocks have historically caused a 1-2% Nifty dip with recovery in 3-4 weeks. Defence stocks have rallied 5-10%, while Tourism and Aviation have underperformed during standoffs. Historical precedent: markets recovered in under a month in all India-Pakistan incidents since 1999.

Q: How reliable is this historical pattern?

This pattern has occurred 2 times in our verified database, with the Nifty 50 moving higher in 50% of those occurrences. Our Historical Confidence score for it is 58/100, based on sample size, consistency, and data quality.

Q: Which sectors are most consistently affected?

Across all 2 occurrences, Fertilizers, Oil & Gas, Defence showed the strongest and most consistent reactions — led by Fertilizers at +12.0% on average.

Q: What's the ideal holding period based on history?

Historically, the strongest and most consistent move has come over a 1 month window, averaging +0.1% with a 50% positive rate.

Q: Does this pattern always play out the same way?

No — history shows a tendency, not a certainty. The Nifty 50 moved up in 50% of the 2 recorded occurrences, meaning it moved the other way the rest of the time.

Based on 2 verified historical occurrences of this pattern between Feb 2019 and Feb 2022.

First Occurrence Feb 2019

Latest Occurrence Feb 2022

Occurrences 2

Data Confidence 85%

40Pattern Match

Historical Similarity (30%)34

Success Rate (20%)50

Market Impact (15%)40

Company Consistency (15%)56

Sector Consistency (10%)38

Data Confidence (10%)20

NeutralHistorical Verdict🔴 Weak Pattern

2.0/5 · Poor

Based on 2 historical Geopolitical events

Opportunity score 55/100 · 85% confidence · Medium risk · neutral trend

Historically, Fertilizers reacted positively 100% of the time (avg. +12.0%) around events like this.

View Timeline Similar Events Compare With Today

Historical Occurrences

since Feb 2019

Avg. Nifty Reaction (1M)

+0.1%

across all occurrences

Historically Positive

50%

1 of 2 times

Avg. Data Confidence

88.5%

across occurrences

Occurrence Timeline

Feb 14, 2019Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff

+3.5%This Event

Feb 24, 2022Russia Invades Ukraine — Global Commodity Shock

-3.2%