What happened during Russia Invades Ukraine — Global Commodity Shock?

Russia launched full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. Crude surged to $130/barrel. Nifty fell 5% in 1 week as FIIs pulled out. India's position as non-aligned buyer of Russian oil eventually became an advantage.

Which stocks benefited most from Russia Invades Ukraine — Global Commodity Shock?

Historically, ONGC, Coal India, Chambal Fert were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.

How did the Nifty 50 react to Russia Invades Ukraine — Global Commodity Shock?

The Nifty 50 moved -4.0% in the following week and -3.2% over the following month.

How reliable is this historical pattern?

This pattern has occurred 2 times in our verified database, with the Nifty 50 moving higher in 50% of those occurrences. Our Historical Confidence score for it is 58/100, based on sample size, consistency, and data quality.

Which sectors are most consistently affected?

Across all 2 occurrences, Fertilizers, Oil & Gas, Defence showed the strongest and most consistent reactions — led by Fertilizers at +12.0% on average.

What's the ideal holding period based on history?

Historically, the strongest and most consistent move has come over a 1 month window, averaging +0.1% with a 50% positive rate.

Does this pattern always play out the same way?

No — history shows a tendency, not a certainty. The Nifty 50 moved up in 50% of the 2 recorded occurrences, meaning it moved the other way the rest of the time.

Geopoliticalbearish Feb 24, 2022

Russia Invades Ukraine — Global Commodity Shock

Based on 2 verified historical occurrences of this pattern between Feb 2019 and Feb 2022.

First Occurrence Feb 2019

Latest Occurrence Feb 2022

Occurrences 2

Data Confidence 92%

40Pattern Match

Historical Similarity (30%)34

Success Rate (20%)50

Market Impact (15%)40

Company Consistency (15%)56

Sector Consistency (10%)38

Data Confidence (10%)20

CautiousHistorical Verdict🔴 Weak Pattern

2.0/5 · Poor

Based on 2 historical Geopolitical events

Opportunity score 60/100 · 92% confidence · High risk · down trend

Historically, Fertilizers reacted positively 100% of the time (avg. +12.0%) around events like this.

View Timeline Similar Events Compare With Today

Historical Occurrences

since Feb 2019

Avg. Nifty Reaction (1M)

+0.1%

across all occurrences

Historically Positive

50%

1 of 2 times

Avg. Data Confidence

88.5%

across occurrences

Occurrence Timeline

Feb 14, 2019Pulwama Terror Attack — India-Pakistan Military Standoff

+3.5%

Feb 24, 2022Russia Invades Ukraine — Global Commodity Shock

-3.2%This Event